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COBRA vs. Marketplace.
What COBRA would cost to keep your current health plan, versus what an ACA Marketplace plan would cost after the subsidy your income qualifies for. With a clear recommendation when one is obviously cheaper.
Estimates based on national averages. For a binding quote, use HealthCare.gov (or your state exchange) with your actual zip code.
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Methodology
How these numbers are derived.
COBRA estimate: starts from the KFF 2024 Employer Health Benefits Survey average total premium ($700/month individual, $2,000/month family) and adds the 2% administrative fee allowed under federal law. State-level adjustments are a coarse regional multiplier.
Marketplace estimate: starts from a national-average benchmark silver plan premium (~$500/month individual at age 40, scaled by age and household size), then applies the ACA premium-tax-credit formula. Above 400% of the federal poverty level, the subsidy caps contribution at 8.5% of income (the temporary expansion that, at publication, is current law).
When COBRA usually wins: mid-treatment, a strong specialist relationship, a small network plan that the Marketplace equivalent in your state does not include, or higher-than-average income (where the subsidy is smallest).
When Marketplace usually wins: anyone whose income for the year is meaningfully lower than it was while employed, anyone under 30 (premium-vs-subsidy math is most favourable), and anyone whose employer plan was an expensive PPO they did not strictly need.
Primary sources
- · KFF 2024 Employer Health Benefits Survey
- · HealthCare.gov subsidy methodology (premium tax credit)
- · IRS Federal Poverty Level guidelines (current year)
- · State exchanges where applicable (CA, NY, MA, CO, DC, etc.)
This page is for general information only. It is not insurance, financial, or tax advice. For a binding quote, use HealthCare.gov or your state's Marketplace with your actual zip code, age, and 2026 income estimate.